Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-13 52237.108672 55383.444800 58538.127896 61935.909184 65489.509557 69093.745427 73023.105296
2024-10-20 46790.036023 51555.248238 56476.897831 61931.591809 67799.408596 73913.433537 80757.195633
2024-10-27 42777.689789 48600.465411 54756.962884 61734.174736 69404.429623 77562.099002 86876.425107
2024-11-03 40506.090272 47199.246105 54413.531713 62739.205161 72053.102241 82122.139698 93800.526858
2024-11-10 38525.399664 45904.542461 53993.712111 63477.551375 74248.147201 86056.076123 99934.970420
2024-11-17 36628.884577 44545.269525 53357.930815 63838.459801 75902.980583 89295.414169 105223.510494
2024-11-24 34752.026348 43080.367751 52485.875221 63820.493736 77031.762049 91865.589508 109698.513060
2024-12-01 33271.695954 41984.288482 51955.218225 64118.012445 78456.500768 94723.483951 114469.641450
2024-12-08 31795.701235 40811.080949 51260.243451 64154.253373 79518.676679 97119.886279 118679.980922
2024-12-15 30937.367535 40328.173203 51338.098650 65065.764136 81581.316587 100665.751284 124231.100992
2024-12-22 29583.895266 39177.816322 50558.072420 64897.342104 82316.329273 102620.246422 127893.231340
2024-12-29 28956.890108 38889.246746 50793.471067 65932.404581 84479.363349 106262.532335 133566.489329
2025-01-05 28063.879442 38246.657407 50583.296785 66423.425982 85999.986023 109172.243165 138425.500440
2025-01-12 27008.453129 37358.904022 50035.890924 66470.675564 86960.635103 111402.925233 142478.869067
2025-01-19 25906.385863 36367.991755 49320.209865 66272.352815 87589.800275 113212.966797 146016.086851
2025-01-26 25454.849852 36197.096274 49622.070642 67338.103443 89781.625833 116934.506009 151901.834136
2025-02-02 24907.179519 35875.717278 49711.876336 68119.797593 91610.613293 120212.909593 157260.440022
2025-02-09 24219.002307 35341.223875 49504.086612 68501.731263 92923.122639 122849.144479 161835.240144
2025-02-16 23399.680400 34601.688192 49003.529694 68482.742783 93708.664314 124819.805188 165584.545065
2025-02-23 22762.076877 34084.614673 48773.839460 68797.504229 94908.471768 127304.981491 169982.861200
2025-03-02 22046.227062 33435.859513 48347.973847 68835.844709 95738.052589 129317.067879 173790.486288
2025-03-09 21729.889431 33325.720784 48629.639884 69800.062725 97766.151934 132854.526609 179542.259891
2025-03-16 20990.485341 32601.721034 48065.219958 69621.913372 98291.272354 134471.520920 182861.287769